Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre overwhelmingly won his leadership review in January with 87.4 per cent support of the vote. He will be the party
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre overwhelmingly won his leadership review in January with 87.4 per cent support of the vote. He will be the party leader for the foreseeable future and into the next federal election.
While most Conservatives are hopeful that Poilievre will become prime minister, there are contenders waiting in the wings if he’s unsuccessful. Ontario Premier Doug Ford may be one of them.
The cat was let out of the bag (sort of) by Ford’s daughter, Krista Haynes. This occurred during her recent appearance on the podcast Can’t Be Censored, hosted by Travis Dhanraj and Karman Wong. “Your grandmother once told us that one day, a Ford would be the Prime Minister,” Wong said to Haynes. “Which Ford is that going to be?” Haynes nervously laughed and said, “Next question!” Dhanraj interjected and said, “Is there anxiety around that? Do you think he’ll run?” Haynes said, “Pardon?,” and Dhanraj continued, “Do you think he’ll actually, like, run for Conservative leader at some point?” Haynes’s response? “Yeah. Yeah, at some point.”
Even though it was light-hearted banter, I still wonder if her father would have preferred that she had opted to plead the fifth.
Not that this topic would be akin to a great political revelation, mind you. There have long been suspicions that Ford had his eye on one day becoming leader of the federal Conservatives. One of the earliest queries came back in 2022, one day before then-party leader Erin O’Toole was ousted in a caucus leadership review. “No, I have my hands full. I love being premier of this province,” Ford told a reporter in Ajax, Ont. “We’re going to build this province and I’m going to continue leading this province. That’s my job. I am just 24-7 working on getting us out of this pandemic. I want to unite this province.”
His position really hasn’t changed in four years. During last week’s Ontario PC convention, he said that he wants to run for a fourth consecutive term as premier. “You’re helping us build a stronger, more united PC Party — a party that will continue to work for the people,” he told the enthusiastic audience of party supporters, “and a party that I look forward to leading to win a historic, fourth majority mandate with your help in the next election.”
We should take Ford at his word that this is the current plan. But, as we all know, plans have a tendency to change.
Ford won his third successive PC majority government in Ontario last February. The next provincial election could be held in either 2029 or 2030. He’s very safe right now. Conversely, Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals won the April 2025 federal election, albeit with a minority government. While the Liberals have 168 of the 343 seats in Parliament, which is only four seats from a majority, it’s a less secure political situation than what Ford faces in Ontario.
If Carney doesn’t acquire a few additional seats through byelections or floor crossings, he may opt to take advantage of his solid poll numbers and pull the trigger for an early election. And if Carney wins, then Poilievre would likely step down — a party leader traditionally gets two kicks at the can in elections before departing the scene — and that would open the door to a Conservative leadership race.
Would Ford be a favourite to win? Possibly, but not necessarily.
Ford brings certain advantages to the table. He’s been Ontario Premier since June 2018 and has gradually become a political powerhouse in the province. He’s a nationally and internationally recognized figure. He’s seen as friendly, personable and charismatic. He’s mastered the art of retail politics and interpersonal communications. He’s more than willing to build bridges with political opponents and critics. And, as I’ve written in the past, his guiding political philosophy, Ford Nation, combines populist rhetoric and small “c” conservative principles. In other words, it’s a “concoction of lower taxes, reducing government interference, supporting individual rights and freedoms — and giving more power back to the people.”
Ford also has his share of disadvantages. He’s not an ideological Conservative, which would undoubtedly turn off quite a few grassroots party members. He’s been a bit too chummy with federal Liberals like Carney and former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, and has a fairly distant relationship with Poilievre and the federal Conservative caucus. His Ontario-specific (and Toronto-specific) messaging and policies won’t naturally endear him to either Western Canada or Atlantic Canada. His folksy, unpolished speaking style would likely work better in a limited provincial context than a broader national context. His lack of French would be viewed as a sore spot, too.
That’s why it’s a mixed bag at best. Conservatives recognize that Ford’s measured approach to politics and economics, common touch and desire to work with politicians from all sides of the aisle would make him a formidable candidate. Then again, the Conservatives’ political direction would be extremely unclear if he became leader. A watered-down version of the party, or Liberal-lite if you wish, would be something most Conservatives would like to avoid at all costs.
Hence, Ford’s federal leadership ambitions (if any) would be far from a slam dunk. The risks with him as party leader could be much higher than the rewards. Conservatives may opt against going down that particular political path.
Next question, folks?
National Post
COMMENTS